How we predict your AP Score (Computer Science A)

On Passionfruit, students get a Predicted AP Score, based on their most recent MCQ and FRQ activity.

In this blog post, we'll share the methodology we use to accurately predict your AP Score.

The equation for MCQ+FRQs

First, we reference real collegeboard data to create our model and equation:

1. Here are the 2023 score distributions for APCSA

2. And FRQ performance from 2022 and 2023

We know that MCQs and FRQs are weighed equally, so using all this information, we can estimate what Composite Score (MCQ+FRQ) is needed to earn 1-5 points on the AP exam.

We define Composite Score as: 50 * (MCQ % Accuracy) + 50 * (FRQ % Accuracy)

For example, if a student scores 35/40 on MCQ and 30/36 on FRQ, their composite score would be: 50*(35/40) + 50*(30/36) = 85.4.

Here’s how to translate a composite score to a 1-5 scale:

5: Composite ≥ 83

4: 65 ≤ Composite < 83

3: 50 ≤ Composite < 65

2: 42 ≤ Composite < 50

In the app, we use your most recent 10 MCQs + 2 FRQs to calculate your predicted AP Score. This means if you study hard and boost your accuracy, your score will immediately reflect your new skills.

What if you've only completed MCQs?

If you've only completed MCQs, we'll use a placeholder value for your FRQ performance to calculate your composite score. We look at the most recent year's student performance, and we assume you'll score exactly 1 standard deviation above the average. In other words, we're assuming you're in the top 15% of students.

This allows us to predict your score using just your MCQ Accuracy:

5: MCQ Accuracy ≥ 92%

4: 65% ≤ MCQ Accuracy <92%

3: 35% ≤ MCQ Accuracy < 65%

2: 18% ≤ MCQ Accuracy <35%

1: MCQ Accuracy < 18%

What if you've only completed FRQs?

Similar to the methodology described above, we'll assume you're in the top 15% of students on MCQs.

We then use your first submission score, for the 2 most recent FRQs attempted.

For example if you did did: 

• FRQ 1, Attempt 1: 2/5

• FRQ 1, Attempt 2: 5/5

• FRQ 2, Attempt 1: 4/9

• FRQ 2, Attempt 2: 6/9

• FRQ 2, Attempt 3: 8/9

Your accuracy would be (2 + 4) / (5 + 9) = 6 / 14 = 43%

We would use 43% to calculate their composite score and AP score (see first section)

And that's all there is to it.

Let us know if you have any questions or ideas on how we can improve our calculation!

Email us at jason@passionfruitlearning.com